Stock breakouts vs pullbacks, switched by the SPY 200-day regime
Run tight-base breakouts and confirmed pullbacks on US stocks, and log whether SPY is above or below its 200-day average to see which regime really pays.
What they did
Burak Dağkılıç ran five rule-based setups on about 1,700 US stocks from October 2024 to October 2026, with no commissions: tight-base breakouts, pullbacks to support bought after a confirmed bounce, big gap-ups on volume, and RSI-above-85 momentum held about 10 days. He then split results by whether SPY was above or below its 200-day moving average.
How it went
The author's claims: tight-base breakouts: 3,596 trades, 35.8% winners, 0.33R average. Confirmed pullbacks: 426 trades, 49.1%, 0.30R. Gap-ups: 1,360 trades, 53%, 0.15R. RSI > 85: 246 trades, 33.7%, 0.2R. By regime, breakouts averaged 1.23R with SPY below its 200-day (529 trades) versus 0.16R in an SPY uptrend (2,477 trades). Confirmed pullbacks averaged 1.01R below the 200-day (147 trades).
Sources:
Worth knowing
- Two years of data and no commissions. The below-200-day sample is a few hundred trades from one or two sell-offs, so it could easily be a one-off.
- The author himself says some findings are 'very easy to misread'. This prompt is for logging and comparing, not a proven edge.
- Exact base, support and bounce definitions aren't published. The [blanks] are ours.
The prompt
Universe: [US stocks, price > $10, 50-day avg volume > 1M].
After each daily close:
1. Regime: note whether SPY closed above or below its [200]-day SMA. Tag every signal with the regime.
2. Breakout signal: the stock's last [10] days traded in a range under [8]% wide, and today it closed above that range's high on volume > [1.5]x its 50-day average. Entry at the next open, stop at the range low.
3. Pullback signal: the stock is above its [50]-day SMA, pulled back to [the 20-day SMA / prior breakout level], and today closed above the prior day's high (confirmed bounce). Entry at the next open, stop below the pullback low.
4. Exits: take profit at [2]R or exit on a close below the [10]-day SMA.
5. Paper-trade ONLY setups allowed by my regime rule: [both / breakouts only when SPY < 200-day].
Weekly report: trades, win rate and average R, split by setup AND by regime.
SAFETY DEFAULTS (keep unless you deliberately change them):
- Use the PAPER trading account only. Never touch a live account.
- Before every order, show me: symbol, side, size, order type, limit price, stop, and the rule that triggered it. Then WAIT for my "approve".
- Hard limits: max [$500] per trade, max [3] open positions, stop all trading for the day after a loss of [$300].
- Log every signal, decision and fill to [a running log / spreadsheet] with timestamps.To go fully autonomous: (1) run on paper for at least [4–8 weeks] or [30+ trades]; (2) delete the 'WAIT for my approve' line and keep the hard limits; (3) switch to live keys or account. On Robinhood, turn off trade approvals in your agent settings, but note that some orders can still require in-app approval or acknowledging a pre-trade alert, so unattended execution isn't guaranteed for every order. IBKR's AI connector always asks for approval; use its regular API for unattended trading. Never remove the daily loss limit.