1DTE iron butterfly at 11:15 AM with a 50% target (options)
Sell a defined-risk iron butterfly that expires tomorrow, entered late morning, taking profit at 50% and accepting a full loss as the stop.
What they did
Jordan F posted a backtest of 435 one-day-to-expiration (1DTE) iron butterflies, 1 contract each: entry at 11:15 AM ET, short strikes at 0.30 delta, $5-wide wings, take profit at +50%, hard stop at −100%, skipping FOMC, CPI and early-close days. The underlying isn't named in the post, and it credits a third-party bot service.
How it went
Per the author: 43% win rate, average win +$172.24, average loss −$100.51, +$17.36 per trade, +$7,554 total, max drawdown −$1,666.75, profit factor 1.30, Sharpe 1.73.
Sources:
Worth knowing
- The underlying (SPX, SPY, QQQ…) isn't named, and the post promotes a bot service. Treat the numbers as marketing until reproduced.
- A 43% win rate means long losing streaks are normal. Size for at least 10 losses in a row.
- Options fills, especially on 4-leg spreads, are worse live than in backtests. Use limit orders at the mid or better.
- Holding overnight (1DTE) adds gap risk on top of the defined max loss.
- Not every agent broker supports multi-leg orders. Check before you start.
The prompt
Options strategy on [SPX / SPY / QQQ], paper account only.
On each trading day that is NOT an FOMC day, CPI day or early close:
1. At [11:15 AM ET], find the expiration [1] trading day out (1DTE).
2. Build an iron butterfly: sell the call and the put at about [0.30] delta (per the source post), and buy wings [$5] beyond each short strike.
3. Propose [1] contract as a single 4-leg limit order at the mid price, and show me the credit, the max loss and the breakevens.
4. Once filled, place a closing order to take profit at [50]% of the credit.
5. Stop: close the whole position if its value reaches [2x the credit received, i.e. −100%].
6. If neither hits, manage per my rule: [close at 3:45 PM ET next day / let it expire].
Log every trade, and every Friday report the win rate, average win and loss, and the longest losing streak.
SAFETY DEFAULTS (keep unless you deliberately change them):
- Use the PAPER trading account only. Never touch a live account.
- Before every order, show me: symbol, side, size, order type, limit price, stop, and the rule that triggered it. Then WAIT for my "approve".
- Hard limits: max [$500] per trade, max [3] open positions, stop all trading for the day after a loss of [$300].
- Log every signal, decision and fill to [a running log / spreadsheet] with timestamps.To go fully autonomous: (1) run on paper for at least [4–8 weeks] or [30+ trades]; (2) delete the 'WAIT for my approve' line and keep the hard limits; (3) switch to live keys or account. On Robinhood, turn off trade approvals in your agent settings, but note that some orders can still require in-app approval or acknowledging a pre-trade alert, so unattended execution isn't guaranteed for every order. On IBKR, standard AI Integration asks for approval on every order. Its new Autonomous Trading mode (eligible individual non-margin accounts, after 10 approved trades) lets the AI trade a funded AI Partition without per-order approval. Never remove the daily loss limit.